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Resources for 'Hot Summer' piece


Lots of beach resources for a 'hot summer'
Photo by <a href="https://unsplash.com/@k0t?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditCopyText">Konstantine Trundayev</a> on <a href="https://unsplash.com/s/photos/beach-toys?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditCopyText">Unsplash</a>

Vlodomyr Zelenskyy impersonator call to Fed Chairman Powell:


Extract here for those who don't Twitter. Powell said:

What we are going to find is that growth in 2022 was positive but modest. It was subdued. So you know, 1% or around that level. In terms of this year, most forecasts continue to call for the US economy to grow, but at a pretty subdued level. A growth of less than 1% lets say. And we would tell you that a recession is almost as likely as very slow growth. And that’s a fact. And that’s partly because of us having raised rates quite a bit, but this is what it takes to get inflation down. We have had inflation at its highest level in 40 years.


To get inflation down, we need a period of slower growth, so the economy can cool off, and so the labour market can cool off, and so that wages can cool off. That’s how inflation comes down. That is the only way we know to bring inflation down. And it can be painful, but we don’t know of any painless way for inflation to come down.


Risk of US default article:

We agree with JP Morgan's view that there is a non-trivial risk of default for the US (due to politics). We say it is worse than expected, due to the central bank's new powers alleviating responsibilities from politicians.


Central Bank policy shifts here:

We explain Powell's speech and the key implications since the new Basel rules were implemented post GFC. We argue central banks are now more powerful than ever, which as implications for markets and policy and what we can expect.


The failure of small banks

We explain this is a more common phenomenon than people realise, and explain the structural reasons and what is different this time around.


Credit Suisse AT1 Bonds

We discuss AT1 write down and the litigation outlook in action on Credit Suisse bonds.




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